When you know more, do you know more about how much you know?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24310/espsiescpsi.vi4.13452Keywords:
probability judgments, calibration, risk, individual differencesAbstract
lnvestigated the relationship between knowledge and several measures of probability judgment accuracy. After answering a 20 true-false ítem exam, students were asked to estimate the subjective probability that each ítem was true. Knowledge was measured by the grades in the exam (right minus wrong answers). The overall accuracy measure improved (Brier Score decreased) with knowledge. This overall accuracy measure can be decomposed in various dimensions: discrimination, calibration and noisiness. Discrimination measures increased with knowledge. This could be explained by the fact that the ability to differentiate true and false ítems works on both variables. At the same time, the more you know a matter, the better calibration or, in other words, the better you know how much you know. These findings support the mathematical model developed by Bjorkman (1992). Four groups of knowledge were formed to draw calibration and covariance graphs
Downloads
Metrics
References
Albert, J. M., y Sponsler, G. C. (1989). Subjective probability calibration: A mathematical model. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 33 (3), 298-308.
Björkman, M. (1992). Knowledge, Calibration, and Resolution: A linear Model. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51, 1-21.
Bolger, F. y Wright, G. (1994). Assessing the quality of expert judgment. Decision Support Systems, 11, 1-24.
Chan, S. (1982). Expert judgments under uncertainty: some evidence and suggestions. Social Science Quarterly, 63, 428- 444.
Ferrell, W. R. y McGoey, P. J. (1980). A model of calibration for subjective probabilities. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 32-53
Horgan, D. D. (1992). Children and chess expertise: The role of calibration. Psychological Research, 54, 44-50.
Keren, G. (1991). Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica, 77, 217-273.
Lichtenstein, S. y Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20, 159-183.
Lichtenscein, S. y Fischhoff, B. (1980). Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26, 149-171.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. y Phillips, L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. En D. Kahneman, P. Slovic y A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Martínez Arias, R. (1991). El proceso de toma de decisiones. En R. Martínez Arias y M. Yela (Eds.), Pensamiento e Inteligencia (pp. 411-494). Madrid: Alhambra Universidad.
Murphy, A. H. (1983). A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12, 595-600.
O’Connor, M. J. (1989). Models of human behavior and confidence in judgment: a review. International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 159-169.
Oskamp, S. (1962). The relationship of clinical experience and training methods to several criteria of clinical prediction. Psychological Monographs, 76, 28-547.
Pitz, G. F. (1974). Subjective probability distributions for imperfectly known quantities. En L. W. Gregg (Ed.), Knowledge and cognition. New York: Wiley.
Wagenaar, W. A., y Keren, G. B. (1985). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 36, 406-416.
Wright, G., Rowe, G., Bolger, F. y Gammack, J. (1994). Coherence, Calibration, and Expertise in Judgmental Probability Forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 57, 1-25.
Yates, J. F. (1982). External correspondence: Decompositions of the mean probability score. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 30, 132-156.
Yates, J. F. (1990). Judgment and Decision Making. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
All contents published in Escritos de Psicología are protected under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) license. All about this license is available in the following link: <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0>
Users can copy, use, redistribute, share and exhibit publicly as long as:
- The original source and authorship of the material are cited (Journal, Publisher and URL of the work).
- It is not used for comercial purposes.
- The existence of the license and its especifications are mentioned.
There are two sets of authors’ rights: moral and property rights. Moral rights are perpetual prerogatives, unrenounceable, not-transferable, unalienable, imprescriptible and inembargable. According to authors’ rights legislation, Escritos de Psicología recognizes and respects authors moral rights, as well as the ownership of property rights. The property rights are referred to the benefits that are gained by the use or the dissemination of works. Escritos de Psicología is published in an open access form and it is exclusively licenced by any means for doing or authorising distribution, dissemination, reproduction, , adaptation, translation or arrangement of works.
Authors are responsable for obtaining the necessary permission to use copyrighted images.